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My home-made bar replay for MT4

I made a home-made bar replay for MT4 as an alternative to the tradingview bar replay. You can change timeframes and use objects easily. It just uses vertical lines to block the future candles. Then it adjusts the vertical lines when you change zoom or time frames to keep the "future" bars hidden.
I am not a professional coder so this is not as robust as something like Soft4fx or Forex Tester. But for me it gets the job done and is very convenient. Maybe you will find some benefit from it.

Here are the steps to use it:
1) copy the text from the code block
2) go to MT4 terminal and open Meta Editor (click icon or press F4)
3) go to File -> New -> Expert Advisor
4) put in a title and click Next, Next, Finish
5) Delete all text from new file and paste in text from code block
6) go back to MT4
7) Bring up Navigator (Ctrl+N if it's not already up)
8) go to expert advisors section and find what you titled it
9) open up a chart of the symbol you want to test
10) add the EA to this chart
11) specify colors and start time in inputs then press OK
12) use "S" key on your keyboard to advance 1 bar of current time frame
13) use tool bar buttons to change zoom and time frames, do objects, etc.
14) don't turn on auto scroll. if you do by accident, press "S" to return to simulation time.
15) click "buy" and "sell" buttons (white text, top center) to generate entry, TP and SL lines to track your trade
16) to cancel or close a trade, press "close order" then click the white entry line
17) drag and drop TP/SL lines to modify RR
18) click "End" to delete all objects and remove simulation from chart
19) to change simulation time, click "End", then add the simulator EA to your chart with a new start time
20) When you click "End", your own objects will be deleted too, so make sure you are done with them
21) keep track of your own trade results manually
22) use Tools-> History center to download new data if you need it. the simulator won't work on time frames if you don't have historical data going back that far, but it will work on time frames that you have the data for. If you have data but its not appearing, you might also need to increase max bars in chart in Tools->Options->Charts.
23) don't look at status bar if you are moused over hidden candles, or to avoid this you can hide the status bar.


Here is the code block.
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Bar Replay V2.mq4 | //| Copyright 2020, MetaQuotes Software Corp. | //| https://www.mql5.com | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ #property copyright "Copyright 2020, MetaQuotes Software Corp." #property link "https://www.mql5.com" #property version "1.00" #property strict #define VK_A 0x41 #define VK_S 0x53 #define VK_X 0x58 #define VK_Z 0x5A #define VK_V 0x56 #define VK_C 0x43 #define VK_W 0x57 #define VK_E 0x45 double balance; string balance_as_string; int filehandle; int trade_ticket = 1; string objectname; string entry_line_name; string tp_line_name; string sl_line_name; string one_R_line_name; double distance; double entry_price; double tp_price; double sl_price; double one_R; double TP_distance; double gain_in_R; string direction; bool balance_file_exist; double new_balance; double sl_distance; string trade_number; double risk; double reward; string RR_string; int is_tp_or_sl_line=0; int click_to_cancel=0; input color foreground_color = clrWhite; input color background_color = clrBlack; input color bear_candle_color = clrRed; input color bull_candle_color = clrSpringGreen; input color current_price_line_color = clrGray; input string start_time = "2020.10.27 12:00"; input int vertical_margin = 100; //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert initialization function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ int OnInit() { Comment(""); ChartNavigate(0,CHART_BEGIN,0); BlankChart(); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SHIFT,true); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_FOREGROUND,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_AUTOSCROLL,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SCALEFIX,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SHOW_OBJECT_DESCR,true); if (ObjectFind(0,"First OnInit")<0){ CreateStorageHLine("First OnInit",1);} if (ObjectFind(0,"Simulation Time")<0){ CreateTestVLine("Simulation Time",StringToTime(start_time));} string vlinename; for (int i=0; i<=1000000; i++){ vlinename="VLine"+IntegerToString(i); ObjectDelete(vlinename); } HideBars(SimulationBarTime(),0); //HideBar(SimulationBarTime()); UnBlankChart(); LabelCreate("New Buy Button","Buy",0,38,foreground_color); LabelCreate("New Sell Button","Sell",0,41,foreground_color); LabelCreate("Cancel Order","Close Order",0,44,foreground_color); LabelCreate("Risk To Reward","RR",0,52,foreground_color); LabelCreate("End","End",0,35,foreground_color); ObjectMove(0,"First OnInit",0,0,0); //--- create timer EventSetTimer(60); return(INIT_SUCCEEDED); } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert deinitialization function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnDeinit(const int reason) { //--- destroy timer EventKillTimer(); } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert tick function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnTick() { //--- } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| ChartEvent function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnChartEvent(const int id, const long &lparam, const double &dparam, const string &sparam) { if (id==CHARTEVENT_CHART_CHANGE){ int chartscale = ChartGetInteger(0,CHART_SCALE,0); int lastchartscale = ObjectGetDouble(0,"Last Chart Scale",OBJPROP_PRICE,0); if (chartscale!=lastchartscale){ int chartscale = ChartGetInteger(0,CHART_SCALE,0); ObjectMove(0,"Last Chart Scale",0,0,chartscale); OnInit(); }} if (id==CHARTEVENT_KEYDOWN){ if (lparam==VK_S){ IncreaseSimulationTime(); UnHideBar(SimulationPosition()); NavigateToSimulationPosition(); CreateHLine(0,"Current Price",Close[SimulationPosition()+1],current_price_line_color,1,0,true,false,false,"price"); SetChartMinMax(); }} if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="New Sell Button") { distance = iATR(_Symbol,_Period,20,SimulationPosition()+1)/2; objectname = "Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1],foreground_color,2,5,false,true,true,"Sell"); objectname = "TP for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]-distance*2,clrAqua,2,5,false,true,true,"TP"); objectname = "SL for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]+distance,clrRed,2,5,false,true,true,"SL"); trade_ticket+=1; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="New Buy Button") { distance = iATR(_Symbol,_Period,20,SimulationPosition()+1)/2; objectname = "Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1],foreground_color,2,5,false,true,true,"Buy"); objectname = "TP for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]+distance*2,clrAqua,2,5,false,true,true,"TP"); objectname = "SL for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]-distance,clrRed,2,5,false,true,true,"SL"); trade_ticket+=1; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_DRAG) { if(StringFind(sparam,"TP",0)==0) { is_tp_or_sl_line=1; } if(StringFind(sparam,"SL",0)==0) { is_tp_or_sl_line=1; } Comment(is_tp_or_sl_line); if(is_tp_or_sl_line==1) { trade_number = StringSubstr(sparam,7,9); entry_line_name = trade_number; tp_line_name = "TP for "+entry_line_name; sl_line_name = "SL for "+entry_line_name; entry_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,entry_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); tp_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,tp_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); sl_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,sl_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); sl_distance = MathAbs(entry_price-sl_price); TP_distance = MathAbs(entry_price-tp_price); reward = TP_distance/sl_distance; RR_string = "RR = 1 : "+DoubleToString(reward,2); ObjectSetString(0,"Risk To Reward",OBJPROP_TEXT,RR_string); is_tp_or_sl_line=0; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="Cancel Order") { click_to_cancel=1; Comment("please click the entry line of the order you wish to cancel."); } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam!="Cancel Order") { if(click_to_cancel==1) { if(ObjectGetInteger(0,sparam,OBJPROP_TYPE,0)==OBJ_HLINE) { entry_line_name = sparam; tp_line_name = "TP for "+sparam; sl_line_name = "SL for "+sparam; ObjectDelete(0,entry_line_name); ObjectDelete(0,tp_line_name); ObjectDelete(0,sl_line_name); click_to_cancel=0; ObjectSetString(0,"Risk To Reward",OBJPROP_TEXT,"RR"); } } } } if (id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK){ if (sparam=="End"){ ObjectsDeleteAll(0,-1,-1); ExpertRemove(); }} } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void CreateStorageHLine(string name, double value){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,value); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNONE); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,0); } void CreateTestHLine(string name, double value){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,value); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrWhite); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,0); } bool IsFirstOnInit(){ bool bbb=false; if (ObjectGetDouble(0,"First OnInit",OBJPROP_PRICE,0)==1){return true;} return bbb; } void CreateTestVLine(string name, datetime timevalue){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_VLINE,0,timevalue,0); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNONE); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,3); } datetime SimulationTime(){ return ObjectGetInteger(0,"Simulation Time",OBJPROP_TIME,0); } int SimulationPosition(){ return iBarShift(_Symbol,_Period,SimulationTime(),false); } datetime SimulationBarTime(){ return Time[SimulationPosition()]; } void IncreaseSimulationTime(){ ObjectMove(0,"Simulation Time",0,Time[SimulationPosition()-1],0); } void NavigateToSimulationPosition(){ ChartNavigate(0,CHART_END,-1*SimulationPosition()+15); } void NotifyNotEnoughHistoricalData(){ BlankChart(); Comment("Sorry, but there is not enough historical data to load this time frame."+"\n"+ "Please load more historical data or use a higher time frame. Thank you :)");} void UnHideBar(int barindex){ ObjectDelete(0,"VLine"+IntegerToString(barindex+1)); } void BlankChart(){ ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_FOREGROUND,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BEAR,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BULL,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_DOWN,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_UP,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_LINE,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_GRID,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_ASK,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BID,clrNONE);} void UnBlankChart(){ ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_FOREGROUND,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BEAR,bear_candle_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BULL,bull_candle_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BACKGROUND,background_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_DOWN,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_UP,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_LINE,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_GRID,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_ASK,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BID,clrNONE);} void HideBars(datetime starttime, int shift){ int startbarindex = iBarShift(_Symbol,_Period,starttime,false); ChartNavigate(0,CHART_BEGIN,0); if (Time[WindowFirstVisibleBar()]>SimulationTime()){NotifyNotEnoughHistoricalData();} if (Time[WindowFirstVisibleBar()]=0; i--){ vlinename="VLine"+IntegerToString(i); ObjectCreate(0,vlinename,OBJ_VLINE,0,Time[i],0); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_COLOR,background_color); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_WIDTH,vlinewidth); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_ZORDER,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_FILL,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_STYLE,STYLE_SOLID); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); } NavigateToSimulationPosition(); SetChartMinMax();} }//end of HideBars function void SetChartMinMax(){ int firstbar = WindowFirstVisibleBar(); int lastbar = SimulationPosition(); int lastbarwhenscrolled = WindowFirstVisibleBar()-WindowBarsPerChart(); if (lastbarwhenscrolled>lastbar){lastbar=lastbarwhenscrolled;} double highest = High[iHighest(_Symbol,_Period,MODE_HIGH,firstbar-lastbar,lastbar)]; double lowest = Low[iLowest(_Symbol,_Period,MODE_LOW,firstbar-lastbar,lastbar)]; ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SCALEFIX,true); ChartSetDouble(0,CHART_FIXED_MAX,highest+vertical_margin*_Point); ChartSetDouble(0,CHART_FIXED_MIN,lowest-vertical_margin*_Point); } void LabelCreate(string labelname, string labeltext, int row, int column, color labelcolor){ int ylocation = row*18; int xlocation = column*10; ObjectCreate(0,labelname,OBJ_LABEL,0,0,0); ObjectSetString(0,labelname,OBJPROP_TEXT,labeltext); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_COLOR,labelcolor); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_FONTSIZE,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_ZORDER,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_CORNER,CORNER_LEFT_UPPER); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_ANCHOR,ANCHOR_LEFT_UPPER); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_XDISTANCE,xlocation); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_YDISTANCE,ylocation);} double GetHLinePrice(string name){ return ObjectGetDouble(0,name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); } void CreateHLine(int chartid, string objectnamey, double objectprice, color linecolor, int width, int zorder, bool back, bool selected, bool selectable, string descriptionn) { ObjectDelete(chartid,objectnamey); ObjectCreate(chartid,objectnamey,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,objectprice); ObjectSetString(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_TEXT,objectprice); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_COLOR,linecolor); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_WIDTH,width); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_ZORDER,zorder); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_BACK,back); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_SELECTED,selected); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,selectable); ObjectSetString(0,objectnamey,OBJPROP_TEXT,descriptionn); } //end of code 
submitted by Learning_2 to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

You can use TD Ameritrade's real-time equity data for free, for paper trading without the 20-minute delay.

In case people didn't know, if you use a platform which "contains" a paper trading acccount, rather than relying on the TOS platform entirely, you can take advantage of the free real-time US equity data for paper trading. So to keep this simple you can get NinjaTrader for free here, it's generally considered a free platform for those who didn't know. https://ninjatrader.com/FreeLiveData When you get NT through this method, you can pick Futures or Forex data. You can go back and fill out each one if you'd like say, do Futures first (that'll be through CQG and give you a lot of data for 7 days or 14, I can't recall) and the Forex through FXCM. Regardless, you don't have to use either one if you don't want. After that you'll be able to download NT installer, I always go with NinjaTrader 8, it works well. Rather than 7, that is.
Simply click "connections" in the main panel once it's open, and add a TD Ameritrade connection with the same login/pass you'd use to login to TOS or your TD/AT online account.
One important thing to note: If you want tick data, at the least NinjaTrader will say give you 10 tick, 2, 1 tick or even intervals like 1s (literally type 1s or 10s or 1t 3t 10t etc and hit enter when you have a chart open) but I believe it's derived from the bar data, if that makes sense. Also if you're viewing anything less than the 1 minute bar timeframe, itll just start off at the time you've opened the chart with such tick/second/range/interval data, and no historical on the chart. So if I'm doing that I like to open a second chart in another tab of the same instrument to show the historical data.
So the paper trading account is within the NT platform, and so long as you make sure you have set up your default account to be say Sim101, the usual name of the default paper trading account, you won't be actually executing trades through the TD Ameritrade broker, but you get to trade on real-time data.
Between this being free data, the possibility of using Rithmic, CQG and FXCM trials for futures and forex, you can get basically all free data. For a paper trader like me, that's nice because I have no skin the game... I think that's the saying.
Keep in mind I'm not promoting NinjaTrader in any commercial capacity and have no affiliation with them whatsoever as a company or in any manner I can conceive. There's one other platform I use which isn't free that's compatible with TD Ameritrade's data and that's called MotiveWave. It also does support simulated trading very very well. I suggest checking it out and I'll just say Google MotiveWaveTM 4.2.8 Ultimate Edition ;) Hope this isn't just old news everyone here has known. If so, let me know. Happy trading and hope this coming trading week is a good one.
Edit: Some other resources which at least have free trials available without necessarily needing any payment info I find useful are: 1) www.livesquawk.com (Especially Steve K's market signals... I've only heard of McAffe's signals but never tried them, however Steve K is a good guy and seems to really know what he's doing. Tl;dr, they work for me in paper trading).
2) https://www.tradethenews.com - you need a linkedin with 5 or more connections to get the free trial but they have a great squawk service with a guy from NYC who seems to be on literally almost 24 hours a day 5 days a week.
3) https://pro.benzinga.com - a Bloomberg Terminal alternative basically, but not as fancy... for more fancy see:
4) http://www.metastock.com/fundsoft4 This one isn't really explained the best on their own site, in my opinion but I've been using the free 30 day trial and what it is, is Metastock's own way of selling Reuters Eikon service. Eikon is about the best Bloomberg Terminal alternative I've found yet in many years of searching. I'm more into looking at data and figuring out how plats work than the actual trading in some ways. Important note on this one: Once you do have a trial, and they take a little while to rubber stamp it so be patient with the emails they send, you can login through the regular Reuters Eikon web login if you wish rather than using the Windows standalone program. They're the same one's just web-baed.
5) Lastly for now, https://www.money.net - definitely worth checking out. Has it's own live squawk for news during trading hours and definitely no payment info needed for a trial. You can login once trial acquired via login.money.net or the now 'legacy' installable platform. They're both good but I'm not crazy about the iOS/Android versions at all.
submitted by FraterThelemaSucks to stocks [link] [comments]

Automatic Trendline MTF Indicator 2019

Automatic Trendline MTF is a forex indicator which automatically draws the trend lines on the mt4 main chart in multi time frames. It counts the beginning points from the actual time frame’s historical data, and the trend lines ending depend on the last visible pullback level.
You can download this indicator free here
submitted by fxtory to FOREXTORY [link] [comments]

Worksheet for Swap Traders (valuing VRC to VRM)

Hi Guys,
I'm a part time Forex trader for 8 years, so I know a little bit about how to value currencies and commodities. I've noticed that some people don't really know how to benchmark a good value of VRC to VRM, or vice versa.
I've put together a Tutorial Worksheet in Open Office Calc. Scroll to the right to get the instructions. It will show you how to create a historical chart of VRM/VRC swap rate movement, then calculate the current swap rate using an included swap rate calculator.
This will give you a sound idea which is overvalued or undervalued compared to which, and what the good value levels are.
Just my little contribution to a fantastic project. Cheers!
http://docdro.id/3zjx4Dr
after clicking link select download ods, open office required.
*one correction, in the tutorial I mention Microsoft Expression Web as a good free image editor, what I meant was Microsoft Expression Design.
submitted by stevexp101 to vericoin [link] [comments]

How to get better at trading - FOREX

Hey everyone. One thing that seems to keep coming up is the idea of making cash via trading. I am totally down with that. What is not cool, though, is people doing it without being informed. For instance, can you read a candlestick chart? Do you have a plan to minimize risk? These are some pretty basic things.
The best way to learn them is through looking up online courses and tutorials about foreign exchange trading (FOREX). Basically, forex was traditionally trading dollars for euros, or dollars for yen, and vice versa. Then you'd take advantage and trade back to make money. Sound familiar? It's the exact same thing as trading cryptos, except the tools are a little more rudimentary (they don't have to be, but people haven't built something like metatrader for cryptos yet). Plus, unlike trading traditional fiat currencies, you can actually mine cryptos.
Here are some small things that are helpful to know:
Here are some places to learn more about forex and currency trading:
This is a great guide on learning how to read charts (which are your best friend if you want to be successful in trading):
Another thing to keep in mind, both IOS and android have free FOREX trading games you can download which use actual historical numbers between currency pairs. You can play with them and start to understand patterns of the market and improve your trading before you ever move a doge out of your wallet. It's invaluable practice. Some of them even have "news" events which can show you how a market moves when news comes out.
submitted by truemeliorist to dogecoin [link] [comments]

XE TRADER Sept.2015 REVIEW | A Scam Review? | Under The Bonnet Investigation

I personally don’t have time or money to waste on anything that smells like a scammy product or service. That’s why in early September when this product first flashed across my screen, I was compelled to investigate. “What the……. is this?” was my initial response. This might sound harsh, however, if you, the consumer are looking for shortcuts to earn and learn how to get rich overnight using Binary Option Trading as your vehicle, you really need to ask yourself the hard questions before incinerating money on products that promise quick riches. Now, fast forward to today, my comments are still emphatic, however once you read this article and review my findings you will be surprised. Throughout this article we will identifying and asking the hard questions one should ponder before purchasing any type of Auto or Semi-Auto-Trader based software. Please read and pay special attention to this article, by the end you will be educated enough to decide whether or not this product is worth investing your time and money in.
 
WARNING: If you are a new or an existing Binary Options trader, you must be well aware that 90% of people trading Binary Options lose their money. To avoid black holes one should train their minds to acquire a tool set that will not only assist you identifying daily trades, but also provides you the the ability to read the markets, simplifying trend analysis and most importantly educating oneself to trade effectively. Don’t fall into the trap of receiving signals and resorting to blind trading, i.e. roll the dice, cross your fingers and hope for the best.
 
Q1. In a competitive market, what is the purpose and point of difference with XE Trader? Answer: As a trader you have a collection of tools you use to trade, to illustrate you may have a set of tools, i.e. a knife, screw driver, pick, metal file, corkscrew etc. XE Trader is packed with many all in one features similar to that of a Swiss Army Knife, features that will enhance your trading experience. XE Trader is delivered to you as a platform not an application with its versatility you can install third party applications within this platform. September 2015, the claim has been made that “XE Trader is the world's most advanced currency pair trend indicator and signals robot designed specifically for binary options trading”. How so? “XE Trader is packed with feature rich enhancements that improve your trading experience”. The main purpose behind XE Trader is to serve as an aid in assisting traders with their understanding of trades, where the information comes from, so they can spot opportunities on their own as they arise within the markets.
 
Q2. Who’s behind this product, what’s their history? are they known criminals/scammers? Answer: XE Trader is brought to you by the world's largest privately owned binary options trader education company Options XE. Education in the form of Trading Webinars is a core part of Option XE's business. Following 3 years of development EX Trader is now the successor of the worlds first binary options robot Optionbot 2, their first creation. Over the years many trading bots have been released into the market, within weeks/months they crash and burn, never to be seen again. Optionbot 2 on the other hand has been and still in circulation, very popular and profitable since day one. This in itself attributes to the success of OptionXE’s first live OptionBot. “In short the XE Trader platform is more than a trading tool, it’s an all encompassing service which will help you win more trades and learn how to become a more effective trader”. The brains and brawn behind OptionBot2 and XE Trader include.
 
Keith Wareing.............CEO of OptionXE Jack Travers................Services Director Ben Newman...............Operations Director
 
As a collective these guys have been in the trading and training business for decades. Now totaling 30 staff, and a trained based of over 20,000 students, these guy’s leave no stone upturned when it comes to providing great support and training backing a solid product. The XE Trader product is a culmination of all of that work that as company Option EX achieved to date. All of their trading experience have been encapsulated into a single computer Window so you the trader can learn how to trade more effectively from home.
 
Q3. What are the key product features and how will these prove advantageous to me? Answer: a. Trend Indicator in also build in across 15 currency pairs. b. Push signals are available across all 30 assets, All signals provided within this platform are passed on via proven leading signal providers. c. Copy trade signals are also made available. These are particularly useful when you are attending one of Ben Newman's webinars, all of which live trading is performed on behalf attendees as they learn how to become familiar with the XE Trader trading platform. d. SMS Alerts e. Economic trading calendar: To keep you apprised of market conditions ahead of time at a glance. f. Market opening times alarm clock g. Accurate Zoomable Price Charts h. Embedded trader insight videos and bulletins surrounding market announcements and events, videos and bulletins are available on the fly.
 
Q4. If this is a signal service how does it connect with my existing broker? Answer: As an improvement from OptionBot2’s costly and strict broker entry requirements of 3 to 5 must have registered brokers The entry requirement for XE TRADER is just the one broker. You can even use your existing broker.
 
Q5. How much does this product cost? Are there any hidden costs? What’s the catch? Answer: You can pay an all up lifetime licence of 2,999 pounds, includes 1 month subscription to their daily training webinars or you can opt in for the a Free Licence offer, how long this window stays open is anyone’s guess. If this product meets popular demand and takes off as a roaring success, or if it flops, either scenario will undoubtedly have a determination as to this product windows life-cycle period.
 
Q6. If this sounds like a “Too good to be true” offer, what's the angle, how do the promoters profit? Answer: If the OptionBot2 is anything to go by I don’t believe this product falls into that category.
 
Q7. What realistically can my expectations be by connecting with this product/service? Answer: Please view the product video. Here you will find reviews by beta testers.
 
XE Trader Product Video
 
WARNING: As video has been published by OptionsXE, a pinch of salt could be in order, unbiased content? Well you decide. Historical sales and ITM performance form OptionBot2, would suggest that after years of further research and development of XE Trader could be a promising in this industry. What we have here is now called a platform, somewhat more than a trading tool, an all encompassing service that will help you win more trades and learn how to become a more effective trader.
 
Q8. If I invest in this product and it all goes very wrong, what are my options? Answer: The XE Team behind the development and support for this product are very credible, collectively they have years of knowledge and experience. Ben Newman provides live assistance and training via his complimentary webinars as a service once you register with XE Trader.
 
To conclude it is refreshing to see a sold rounded product unlike the other scams on the internet. Thank You for reviewing this article, I hope you have found it informative. Please leave a comment below, all the best as you complete you own due diligence and move forward.
 

Click here to download and register for XE Trader right now

 

WARNING Advice:

1. Always remember when testing out any new trading ventures, manual or automatic, make sure you have a money management plan, once you have a strategy in place stick with it.
 
2. A FREE trading DEMO account is a great way to test out new strategies so you don’t go bust in the process.  
3. Not all brokers are made equal when it comes to great customer service, being able to withdraw funds, having a user friendly, easy to use trading platform to work with. I have traded with a countless number of brokers, some I have had nightmare experiences. I prefer to trade only using industry regulated brokers tick all the boxes, as above ( I have listed these below). If
you are not sure, try out one of the brokers listed below, do a background check as required, they will provide you with a demo account on request.
 
 

Tried & TRUSTED BROKERS:

 
Banc De Binary
 
Cherry Trade
 
Interactive Options
 
OptionFair
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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submitted by tomwinninghardy to twhREVIEWS [link] [comments]

How To Download Historical Data in Metatrader 4 - YouTube Sexy and automated way to download historical data for MT4 - DonForex MetaLoader How To Download Free Historical Data With Metatrader 4 ... How to download historical data, option chains and reports ...

Download free historical data. Import historical data in MetaTrader, Excel, Forex Strategy Builder, Expert Advisor Studio. For a more convenient access you can Download the Forex Historical Data by FTP. Get your FTP or SFTP access, via PayPal, here: For more details: Download by FTP DataFiles Last Updated at: 2020-08-31 22:00. Get Automatic Updates! You can get the Forex Historical Data Automatic Updates using Google Drive! Subscribe, via PayPal, here: Select File Format: GoogleDrive/GMail Address: For more ... Learn how to download Forex Historical Data from the App, and make it work for your broker. In this video, you will learn how to modify the symbol settings of any instrument in EA Studio. This way you can download Forex Historical Data from the App above, and make it work for the broker you want to use. How to use the Forex Historical Data App? Download the data you need; It is effortless to u How to Download Historical Forex Data For the Timeframe You Need. Sometimes you are looking for data for a particular timeframe and you cannot find it. For example, maybe you want 4 hour data, but all you can find is 1 minute data. This post will show you how to convert that data easily and quickly. If you want to download intraday Forex data to use with QuantShare or for external use then here a list of websites that allow you to export historical quotes for several currencies for free. Each website allows downloading rates in one or several periods and depending on the provider, data spans from few days to several years. Fast data download. The Historical Forex Data service is the fastest one on the market. It provides precompiled files with up to 200 000 bars that are ready for export in different formats. Free Access for All Traders The Historical Forex Data service is openly available for all traders. We created this Historical Forex Data service to make it easier for the users of Forex Strategy Builder and ... Download daily prices and historical price data for stocks, ETFs, futures, forex symbol with historical download data available back to Jan. 1, 1980.

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How To Download Historical Data in Metatrader 4 - YouTube

https://www.forexboat.com/ Get Your Free Membership Now! Downloading historical data in metatrader 4 is important part in backtesting as metatrader is alread... This demo video shows how to download historical data, option chains, balances, orders/ transactions and positions reports in TraderXL for TD Ameritrade In this video you can see how to download Free Historical Data in Metatrader 4. https://mql4tradingautomation.com/metatrader-download-historical-data-backtes... How to download historical data for MT4? DonForex MetaLoader: the best chart history downloader and updater for MetaTrader4 (MT4) A fresh install of MT4 doesn't come with history data (just a few ...

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